Nikhil Bangde

  (Below parable is penned during Corona Crisis period)

I dedicate the parable to my Nephews, 7-year-old Ram & 5-year old Saarth as their innocence served as my point of view for the story

List of Principal Characters

ZOE, Deer & Child of Sarah
SARAH, Deer Mom
JUMBO, an Elephant
LOUIE, Bonobo Chimpanzee
BOXER, Rottweiler Dog
ISAAC, Aldabra Giant Tortoise
BABAR, Lion

An animal’s eyes have the power to speak a great language -Martin Buber, Austrian-Israeli Philosopher

(At Night near the River Aqsa)

Zoe:
Mama, I am getting so bored recently, there is no entertainment.

Sarah:
What do you mean! There’s no entertainment. Son, we don’t live for entertainment, we live for food. Especially this time of year when it gets hotter and we search day and night for water, dreaming of having a portion of fresh grass and leaves to feed on.
But look we have plenty of water which has suddenly turned sweet and looks crystal clear, the sky is not throwing dust on the plants and hence lot greener and tastier. I am having the best time of my lifetime.

Jumbo:
What say you about your life span Sarah, even I haven’t had a bath in with such clean water since ages, and even my problem of running nose due to water which used to be stale in the river the one I had suffered from last 20 years has vanished- ‘Abraa Ka Daabra’. I feel like 40-year youth.
But why are you bored little Zoe, you must be happy?

Zoe:
No, it’s not like that Jumbo; I am missing them- The Humans. The creatures for whom, we use to come out from our dense jungles and got entertained through their activities. My mother tells me everybody dies and ‘The End’ happens. Has Human species ‘The Ended!’, Jumbo, will we never get entertained now?

Jumbo:
Entertained! Oh Boy! You got to be kidding me, don’t you know it’s due to those animals, we had so much dust in our Jungle in recent times and the water’s that was stale until now we owe it to them.
But you are spot on little Zoe, yesterday I put the same question to Boxer who like my grandfather was also taken by humans and is currently the only animal in our Jungle who has firsthand experience with humans.
But he did what his species is good at, he smelled his way back to the jungle after his master passed away. Although I did ask him, why it took him so long to get back to the jungle, his answer was- he was following what his species was best at- Loyalty towards Master. Let me call him by my clear sound of Trunk.

(Jumbo blows his Trunk for calling Boxer, Louie sleeping on the tree near river Aqsa wakes up)

Louie:
Have you lost your mind Jumbo? You are waking me up Dumbo.

Jumbo:
If Elephants start losing their Elephant minds Louie, then consider that days of Jungle are near. Everyone in the Jungle holds me in high regard, except these monkeys. No doubt you people grew out to be humans, Louie.
Come down if you want to, we were discussing your unceremonious evolution itself.

Louie:
Oh, humans, I am so proud of them.

(Boxer arrives)

Boxer:
Ya, who isn’t proud of hands those feed them, especially when it gives peanuts, to the nuts of Jungle.

Louie:
Hold your tongue, Boxer!

Boxer:
Otherwise what, you will be behaving like your future generations.

Louie:
They fed you, they took care of you for two years, at least give the respect they deserve.

Boxer:
Aye, I do, but my respect is for humanity not very much for humans, and loyalty towards my science-loving scientist master. I cried for him when he passed away, and all the good things and knowledge he thought me I still cherish, I was his only companion during his final years when his rude son left him to rot.
You know little Zoe, his son wanted to take me to his home after his father, but I followed the advice my master once gave me: Although we cannot all be masters, nor all masters cannot be truly followed.¹

(Isaac comes out from River Aqsa) 

Isaac:
What’s this shouting about now? Boxer and Louie this is the tenth time that due to your loud fights, I have been woken up from my sleep

Jumbo:
This time it’s not a fight between them.
Boxer and Louie stop fighting like humans and Louie you are far from evolution to being a human, so can we have a parley between you two just for tonight, so, we can concentrate on the apprehension raised by little Zoe.
Isaac we were trying to find answers as to ‘Where in the hell have Humans gone? Why are they not coming to our Jungle anymore? This little Zoe is complaining about lack of entertainment in his life’.

Isaac:
What! The air non-dusty, the water sweet and clear, why complain little Zoe?
Haven’t had such a sound sleep in waters since my early years of life which’s some 110 years ago, I feel so rejuvenated even in these old years of my life.

Louie:
That’s not what little Zoe’s point was.

Jumbo:
Exactly! Everyone let Boxer speak and besides that’s why I summoned him.
Boxer, humans have stopped visiting our forest, have you any idea about as to why?

Boxer:
It feels like bliss, isn’t it?
For the first time in my life, I am seeing this beautiful Jungle of ours minus those unnatural creatures. And they have vanished, just like that.

Louie:
Means my fellow brothers have become extinct or what?

Isaac:
That’s far from happening Louie, I have rarely seen adaptable species like that of those chaps, I am sure whatever the reason, humans will survive.
I am telling this not only from my experience but, the same inference was drawn by my grandfather also. He was a great tortoise you know.
The knowledge he gained was passed on to my father and subsequently, the combined knowledge of my grandpa and father has given me so much enlightenment.
You know he use to say that the width of our River Aqsa, was twice as of today in his time, which is about three hundred ago.

Jumbo:
Yes, even I have heard stories about it and the freshwater life it contained, but now they have become extinct in our Aqsa.

Boxer:
So, who is to blame? For River Aqsa and also for obnoxious problems our Jungle has faced during these recent years.

Jumbo:
I understand where you are pointing to Boxer. And I know about your hatred for them.
If we choose the species to be blamed by hearing everyone’s opinion or even by vote, what purpose will it serve?

(Babar comes to River for drinking water)

Boxer:
Maybe we can ask him them (looking towards Babar who is walking towards the assembly)

(Sarah & little Zoe scared, try to hide behind Jumbo, while Louie ascends to the upper branch of the tree)

Babar:  (Looking towards the Sarah and little Zoe)
Nothing to worry, I had an awesome dinner of buffalo meat which I hunted. I am full and ain’t greedy. I will reserve you for some other day.
Anyways, why this assembly? Is there any problem in the Jungle? I am the King, let me solve it.

Jumbo:
Being at the top of the food chain doesn’t mean everything. If only, power can buy wisdom, Babar.

Babar:
(Growling) You are insulting me Jumbo.

Jumbo:
Making you know about reality seems like an insult to you, then so be it. In my lifetime I have seen your three generations Babar, I don’t fear you and I dare you take a single step towards anyone present over here.
And if feasting on others just to satisfy your hunger, makes you our ruler, then it looks like humans picked that page from your species itself, the only difference being, you satisfy your need and they their greed. For that reason alone I haven’t thrown you out of Jungle.

Isaac:
(Looking towards Babar) See, that’s what you call wisdom, which power cannot buy. Although, other way round is a matter of probability.

Jumbo:
(To Babar) Besides don’t forget our jungle belongs to you as much it belongs to little Zoe.
So why don’t you just sit down and learn something from us over here.

Boxer:
So returning to the obnoxious problems our Jungle faces then.
If we are not letting our king decide and we aren’t voting either then, how can we have an answer to our question then?

Isaac
Voila, I have the way!
Although it’s a method borrowed from human, something my grandfather fondly appreciated; most vibrant one indeed, used by the forefathers of the present human generations to arrive at an affirm conclusion:
Neither the King, nor a vote; but a meaningful Discussion is the answer to our problems. Something which they have eluded will serve our purpose now.

Louie:
Seems, worth a try!

Jumbo:
I agree! Although this method doesn’t only belong to humans, I have heard when my species was not poached by humans and was in population of a herd, my forefathers used a similar approach in order to make our great Jungle feasible for all living beings, sticking to the golden rule that each species has a part to play in the greatness of this great Jungle.
A great time when flora complemented the fauna and food chain had enough layers to serve everyone’s needs.

Boxer:
Aye. But the problem was never about the need, it was rather the aggravated assault for the ambition of human’s greed.

Babar:
You have always been rash towards me and my generations Jumbo, and for what?
The crime of satisfying our need, unlike Man who lingers on greed and everyone in Jungle, knows you got a soft corner for them.
If the one whom everyone admires in Jungle chooses greed over need, then future hold but tragedy for us. Why don’t we just declare, ‘Whatever that goes upon two legs is an enemy and whatever goes upon four legs, or has wings is a friend.’²

Louie:
Isn’t that too hard a proposition? Besides, even some animals confuse me with having two hands and two legs. So, am I to be considered an enemy by the jungle then?

Jumbo:
No, that’s not true. My grandfather was taken by them at a mature age to do some drills at someplace called Circus and was again dropped back to Jungle when he was frail old. Although he was kept in some type of bond which humans called chains but never did he held animosities against them. In fact, he always used to say that most humans are good, and you cannot pass the blame of a few individuals on the entire species.

And Babar, we are here to discuss, not to pass judgments. Keep in mind, judgment clouds our thinking and ceases our right to think further.

Isaac:
Very well put forward, Jumbo.

Boxer:
The one who feels the pain of others is the only one qualified to be called as Human, my master used to say that.

As a fact of the matter I recall now, my master was pointing at a girl on TV, who was very angry and complaining about the resources that humans are using, suggesting that it will lead to the destruction of our planet and endanger large species of animals. My master pointed out to me that she and humans like her are the only hope now if Earth has got to survive.

What was her name….ah….Yes, Greta.

Zoe:
What’s a TV??

Boxer:
It’s a device that humans watch day in and day out, little Zoe. When I was newly exposed to it, I also felt very good, only to realize it later that it’s the reason why humans have become idiots.

Jumbo:
So you are saying that little girl- Greta who took our side, is leading humans now?

Boxer:
I don’t know for sure but looks like she is.

Isaac:
If it’s true then that seems like a great decision, to choose someone as a leader, who although represents them but speaks for us.

Jumbo:
Aye! Well said, Isaac. But, why would they do that??

Louie:
Change.
I have noticed that’s one quality I frequently adhere to, than anyone amongst you. See that’s why I ain’t have permanent shelter, shifting it from one tree to another- for change.
Looks like my brethren have opted change for the better this time.

Sarah:
That is a welcome step.
At last, they have got their direction right now and if this supposed Change yields desired results for us then generations hence, we can think of including humans in our ecosystem- they can become one amongst us.

Jumbo:
Sarah, they are already one amongst us, but in recent times they have started to think of themselves as superior.

Sarah:
But aren’t they superior, means like, I agree that Babar here is also a superior species than my species.

Jumbo:
That ain’t true Sarah. Every species is equally important as any other species, even a small creature like an Ant is equally important to our forest as an Elephant or a Lion is.
Likewise, humans are also one amongst us and not one above us.

Isaac:
Aye, and someone has arrived in their species to remind them of that fact, which they once knew but seemed to had forgotten in the recent past.

Jumbo:
Yeah, after so much of catastrophe perpetrated by them on our Jungle, they finally look to take steps for peace, realizing the reality that every life is as important, however smaller it may be and you know my grandfather use to say that “Jumbo, yes each in our Elephant species is big and that’s the way that nature has designed us. But, I have observed nitty-gritty of this jungle and tell you what, kick out a species like us or that of Babar from Jungle and Jungle may fall apart but, after ages; but kick out the species those are smaller in size and by taking them out of the equation, Jungle may within a year or two fall apart”.
He said and I also believe it: This Jungle has always belonged to small; it always did from the beginning of the time and will remain till the end of times.

Isaac:
You know one of the most cherished anecdote that was passed on by my father to me, is the story he had heard from local creatures of Japan when he was on a tour of oceans around the world, a long time ago.
He was telling me a piece of land in Japan was blasted very heavily by humans to kill humans and in turn killed almost all species in that area, but for one.

Zoe:
Oh! Which was it?

Babar:
Obviously, the most strongest species, my brothers, wasn’t it Isaac?

Boxer:
No, I think it would have been, Jumbo’s species, the Elephants, most brainy and intelligent of all species.

Isaac:
I am sorry to disappoint you both but it was neither the most intelligent or the most strongest which survived, but the one who is most adaptable survived the blast

Louie:
But you said it killed all humans.

Isaac:
Who said Human species is the most adaptable to you?

Boxer:
Well that’s what has been always told to us, isn’t it?

Zoe:
If neither Tigers nor Elephants or Humans, then who survived it, Isaac?

Isaac:
Little Zoe, if anything needs a start it has to begin from scratch. Similarly, if life had plans for that devastated place, it had to start from the bottom of the food chain, hence amongst all the species in that inhabitable land, nature choose to save the most adaptable of species- Cockroach

Louie:
What say you? That filthy species survived.

Isaac:
Aye, they did! And although they might be filthy for you, we should care to ask them one day as to whether they have similar views regarding your species too or what.

Boxer:
I now recall my master once told me that Cockroach as a species has inhabited the earth even before big giant species called Dinosaurs, and have always stood the test of time.

Isaac:
Isn’t that strange, the one species whom we all use to write down has the most interesting story amongst all of us to tell.

Jumbo
Exactly! The one whom we all considered the weakest and smallest is the one whom life has always trusted to hinge upon.

Boxer:
Talking of the weakest and smallest, my master used to say that there are many of them in their species also, since the beginning of their time and looks like it’s them that humans admire most.
I recall he told me story of a certain human, someone who spoke of hills and rivers and compared them with truth and something called as non-violence.

Jumbo:
Talk of him, he looks like our supporter.

Boxer:
Oh! He was killed by some other human.

Babar:
See they are like me, maybe the one who killed him wanted power. Blood, they all love blood like me, it gives them power- Jungle’s Law

Boxer:
It usually does, but here something opposite happened.

Louie:
What?

Boxer:
The one who was blooded grew in power after his death as his message survived, and the one who had blooded- waned in power, he too died, but in oblivion.

Isaac:
Looks like a lesson to learn from, isn’t it Babar?

Jumbo:
Looks like his idea is what survived. Even my grandfather used to narrate me that it’s not wise to put all humans under a single column and the one deemed to be the weakest in their species, pass on to remaining the ways of survival.

Babar:
You mean the man who talked about hills and rivers, and this girl- Greta who took his legacy forward, is leading those duffers now?

Isaac:
Aye! looks like that. And Girl leading them has thought them, our lesson, the lesson of animals of sufficing to need and not greed.

Jumbo:
Aye! Looking at people like her and the one whom she took lessons from, we can hopefully conclude that humans deserve a second chance.

Isaac:
That seems an amicable conclusion to our discussion then.

Boxer:
Yes Indeed!

Jumbo:
And answering to question about your entertainment, little Zoe.
Life is not about entertainment kid, it’s about Survival, it always has been and it always will be. I am sure you will understand it soon and when you do, you will complete your transaction from little Zoe to Zoe.

Louie:
Can I have your attention, everybody. Half the night has already passed and the remaining half I want to make it fruitful by having a sound sleep.

Jumbo:
Yes! We should all part ways now. As again when the sun will shine out after this dark night, a big task awaits for all of us tomorrow: ‘Survival’.

 

An animal’s eyes have the power to speak a great language– Martin Buber, Austrian-Israeli Philosopher

Inspiration for Story
George Orwell’s -‘Animal Farm’

 

Notes
1 Although we…truly followed:  Quote from William Shakespeare’s ‘Othello’
2 Whatever… wings is a friend:  Quote from George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’

 

Front Image Courtesy:  JUNSZYH DIY Oil Painting

(I am Amazed that above research paper was published by me 1 and a half year before but is unfortunately still relevant today, hope that world trade and world changes for the better in near future)

Introduction

In the last quarter of 2008 world trade collapsed by about twenty per cent time; it remains one of the most puzzling economic phenomena of the last decade. But rather than the collapse the subsequent recovery stunned and surprised trade economists, because after the recovery from the collapse, world trade slowed down and deglobalization gathered pace. This phenomenon impacting not only trade and economics of the world but also resulted in deglobalization of political situations, geopolitics and also ideas all across the world. This paper studies the phenomenon of the occurrence of deglobalization as a consequence of a collapse of world trade and how it has been on a raised ever since. Global economy as of now is getting impacted with radical doubts. The world appears to be wavering between two alternatives: either a wave of backlash and deglobalization, with nationalism and market segmentation, and national priorities set against globalism; or a transition to a very new kind of globalization, sometimes referred to as globalization 2.0.

While the duration of the 2008-09 world trade downturn was shorter and the recovery to pre-collapse levels was much quicker than during the previous world trade collapse during the Great Depression of the 1930s, a comparable process of deglobalization was set in motion by the two world trade collapses. With a similar pattern emerging from both which is unequal distribution of wealth amongst population, resulting in hardcore left wing and right wing nationalist parties being voted to power , taking economic and trade related decisions which considers only nation’s interest and ignoring or rather deluding the world at large. The subsequent reactions Great depression of 1930’s being economic suppression of nations who lost in World War-I, which resulted in rise of nationalists like Mussolini and Hitler who flared these sentiments cascading from one to another and finally resulting in World War-II. While the after effects of 2008-09 recession are not so harsh but are on the lines of worry as the BREXIT referendum and the election of Donald Trump have brought a new style of politics. These developments constitute a major challenge to the liberal international order constructed after the defeat of Nazism in 1945 and strengthened after the collapse of the Soviet system in 1991. While the United States and the United Kingdom were the main architects of the post- 1945 order, they now seem to be at pioneers in the reverse direction, steering an erratic, inconsistent course away from multilateralism.

• Rise in Nationalistic Ideology & Hard-line Political Leaders

Rise of unemployment and further escalation of inequalities in income after 2008 recession was exploited very dearly by hard-line political leaders across globe of developed, developing as well as under developed nations. Due to these new uncertainties and challenges, conventional wisdom was pushed back, defenders of globalization over a period of time found hard to defend their positions on benefits delivered by globalized world as people needed an instant panacea and there wasn’t one available. Upholders of globalization, tried to sum up the multiple gains from the globalization of the past decades — in particular, the lifting of large numbers of people (especially in Asia) out of poverty. But they also almost universally now acknowledge that there have been many costs, and call for more effective mechanisms to compensate the losers of globalization.

The political system is highly significant in both 1930s and 2000s but the impact is opposite. In the 1930s autocratic rule and dictatorship are associated with stronger deglobalization; in the 2000s democracy is associated with stronger deglobalization. Another striking difference being that post 1930 Great Depression- leaders and political parties with communist ideology and leftist view rose to power three most important dictators to arise in Europe in the decade were Benito Mussolini in Italy, Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union and Adolf Hitler in Germany, while post 2008’s great recession- leaders and political parties with capitalist ideology and rightist view are rising to power.

It started with rightist Conservative Party taking power from ruling Labour Party in 2010 with David Cameron as Prime Minister of UK, subsequently Shinzo Abe in Japan staged a political comeback in 2012 as Prime Minister, followed by Xi Jinping been chosen as General Secretary of Communist Party of China (CPC) and anointed as President of China in the same year. India saw an emergence of Hindu Hard-liner Narendra Modi assuming office as Prime Minister in 2014. The biggest shocker arrived in 2016 as the Superpower USA saw a capitalist republican candidate Donald Trump with no political experience elected as President of USA as the world stand stunned. France and Germany in its general elections held in 2017 although voted the liberals in the seat of power but the emergence of separatist leader Marine Le Pen in France taking second position by garnering 34% of votes polled and Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in German elections came third with 13% of votes polled- first time a rightist party gathered such huge support in Germany after World War II.

• Geo Political Crises

Geopolitical risk is the risk of one country’s foreign policy influencing or upsetting domestic political and social policy in another country or region. With strong nationalist interest in their minds these elected leaders tend to have a myopic vision concentrating only on their respective countries interest ignoring the entire world. From Ukraine to Syria to the South China Sea, the world is experiencing a spike in geopolitical crises in last few years. The risks from underestimating the implications of geopolitics on the geo-economic landscape and on businesses, an area in which numbers and probabilities are after all tricky to assign, are significant. With the frequency of crises increasing, we should consider the possibility that there may be a signal amid the noise; that our world may be changing for the long term. Political tensions can lead to face-offs and tit-for-tat sanctions, even when decision-makers recognize, intellectually, that each country is inflicting economic self-harm.

With decisions like United States recent withdrawal from 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation, as Trump stated that “The Paris accord undermines the U.S. economy, and puts it at a permanent disadvantage” and US unilateral declaration of announcing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel without taking other members of UN into confidence further adds oil to the fire of rising geo political crises. In the West, consensus expectations were defied by the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, by President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the United States and by the Italian electorate’s rejection of Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reforms.

Issues of identity and culture were central to the two most dramatic Western political results of 2016, in the United Kingdom and the United States. This is part of a broader trend affecting both international and domestic politics. Across the European Union, parties stressing national sovereignty and/or values have prospered, boosted in part by migration flows that Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) respondents by global risks report continue to point to as a major geopolitical risk. Outside the European Union, polarization in Turkey has deepened since 2010, while Russia has been expressing its national political identity in increasingly assertive foreign policy stances. Globally, politics is increasingly defined by the rise of charismatic “strongman” national politicians and emotive political debate.

Although Geopolitical crises can also creates opportunities few times. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union raised significant uncertainty, but ultimately ushered in an enormous economic peace dividend, but the current trend of geo political crisis doesn’t point in the supposed direction rather is pointing in the opposite direction.

• Back to Mercantilism theory

Mercantilism economic theory which was commonly practiced in Europe from the 16th to the 18th century that promoted governmental regulation of a nation’s economy for the purpose of augmenting state power at the expense of rival national powers. Gold and silver at that time were the currency of trade between countries; a country could earn gold and silver by exporting goods. Conversely, importing goods from other countries would result in an outflow of gold and silver to those countries. The main tenet of mercantilism being that it is in country’s best interests to maintain a trade surplus, to export more than it imported. By doing so, a country would accumulate gold and silver and, consequently, increase its national wealth, prestige, and power. Consistent with the belief, the mercantilist doctrine advocates government intervention to achieve a surplus in the balance of trade. Rather, they recommended policies to maximize exports and minimize imports. To achieve this, imports were limited by tariffs and quotas, while exports were subsidized. Unfortunately, the mercantilist doctrine is by no means dead and a return to this old theory seems to be trend for developed and developing nations. Neo-mercantilists equate political power with economic power and economic power with a balance-of trade surplus. Critics argue that many nations have adopted a neo-mercantilist strategy that is designed to simultaneously boost exports and limit imports. For example, critics charge that China is pursuing a neo-mercantilist policy, deliberately keeping its currency value low against the U.S. dollar in order to sell more goods to the United States and other developed nations, and thus amass a trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves. Even Narendra Modi’s vision of ‘Make in India’ has been envisioned by certain scholars as a new avatar of Mercantilism theory. But each country must remember that that there is a catch of zero sum game in this theory, in which a gain by one country results in a loss by another.

• Imposition of Protectionism Measures

Protectionism refers to government actions and policies that restrict or restrain international trade, often done with the intent of protecting local businesses and jobs from foreign competition. The primary objective of protectionism is to make local businesses or industries more competitive by increasing the price or restricting the quantity of imports entering the country with the typical methods of protectionism like imposition of tariffs and quotas on imports and subsidies or tax cuts granted to local businesses. The other supporting objectives are to conserve the foreign exchange reserves of the country, to curb conspicuous consumption and the final one being to discriminate against certain countries. But lately with nations it has been observed that the final objective of protectionism which is discrimination against certain countries has been the one that has been largely followed.

Tensions between the European Union and Russia in 2014 saw Europe banning Dobrolet, a low-cost Russian carrier from flying to Europe and Russia talking about retaliation in the form of restrictions over its Siberian airspace to European carriers en route to East Asia. This dramatically raised the cost of travel affecting travelers.  The Ukraine crisis suggested that economic interests seem to be becoming less able to prevent international tensions. The EU suffered heavy costs from its sanctions against Russia, given their economic interdependence, just as Russia suffered loss of revenues from its gas-related disagreements with Ukraine. Elsewhere, tensions between China and Japan have been entrenched, despite China being Japan’s largest trading partner and Japan being China’s second most important commercial associate.

Another blatant use of protectionism, is it’s imposition on financial sector too where calls to exclude Russia from Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payment system in 2015, though rebuked, have highlighted that targeting a member of the G20 – the very group meant to be managing the global economy – was no longer out of bounds. Access to the SWIFT payment system is critical for a country to function effectively in the global economy, in the past only the likes of North Korea and Iran have been excluded from it. In March 2017, Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina came up with an announcement that Russia has a substitute for SWIFT. It has been widely reported that Iran is also already partnering with Latin American countries on an alternative payment system, driven by ideological distaste for US dominance of global monetary transactions.

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has warned against the surge in anti-trade rhetoric around the world is being accompanied by a rise in the introduction of protectionist measures by the world’s leading economies.

According to research and analysis which drew from World Bank, Heritage index and Global Trade Alert figures carried by law firm Gowling WLG a staggering figure has come to light where in research has revealed that the world’s top 60 economies have adopted more than 7,000 protectionist trade measures since the financial crisis of 2008-09. The research also found the United States and European Union were each responsible for more than 1,000 of these restrictions, with India being the next in line with 438. But it is the year 2016 that saw the highest level of protectionism in percentage terms since 2010, at just over 61 percent of all the trade measures introduced or modified.

In a world where tariffs are now worth $401bn, the report found that while globalised economics is still the norm in advanced markets, it is losing ground across the board. While 15 of the 20 countries to have passed the highest number of trade-restricting policies since the financial crisis are advanced economies, many others have also imposed harmful measures. And this is contributing to the persistent slow growth in the global economy and the fact it was coinciding with an increase in protectionist political rhetoric around the world ought to be worrying.  While interestingly it has been found that countries like Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia have been loosening their borders since 2009, seemingly not content to follow the world’s example for protectionist policies. United States were able to impose so many protectionist policies due to a very solid base due to a very low reliance on trade as percentage of its GDP at 28 percent which make it moderately susceptible to protectionist changes, whereas Russia and Germany have much higher trade to GDP ratios of 51 percent and 86 percent respectively. In order for trade to happen comfortably without hassles, protectionist trade policies by the countries have to be controlled upon.

World GDP & Trade Scenario at Glance

Year	World Economic Growth	World Trade Growth
2010	5.4%	11.5%
2011	4.3%	6.5%
2012	3.5%	2.8%
2013	3.5%	2.9%
2014	3.6%	3.6%
2015	3.4%	3.3%
2016	3.4%	2.6%
2017	3.8%	4.7%
2018	3.6%	3.0%
2019 (Estimated)	3.0%	1.2%

The above table also represents how world economic growth has suffered due to reduction in world trade growth and this has mainly happened due to increased number of protectionism trade barriers put up by nations across the globe.

• Deglobalized World

The world economic crisis, which started as a financial crisis at the heart of western capitalist system, has not yet ended. Fortunately, while India has been affected, it has been one of the few economies which had been on the path of stable and constant growth. World today after 10 years of crisis has not yet fully returned to expansionary phase and world GDP growth continues to crawl due to the numerous protectionist measures introduced by various countries especially developed and developing ones. And this has impacted the search for markets, technology and resources to fuel the world growth. International developments are inevitably affecting each and every emerging countries around the globe. This has been magnified by rise in oil and commodity prices, itself partly by the availability of more capital but also compounded by the uncertain political climate in the middle-east which stated tearing up with ‘jasmine revolution’ in Tunisia and mounting civil strife in Egypt, Libya, Syria, Iran etc.

As protectionism grows and closes market, and as credit is sucked back into developed economies for their own stimulus and recovery, countries are forced to rely much more on their own domestic market. The world of today is not providing as propitious an environment for their country’s growth and prosperity as the world of two and a half decades ago. Result being countries due to low growth are not able to pull poor people out of poverty and into the twenty-first century globalized economic system.

The recent global financial crisis underlines that the next twenty years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks. Global policymaker’s will have to cope with a growing demand for multilateral cooperation when the international system will be stressed by the incomplete transition from the old to the new order. The olds divides between east and west, north and south, capitalist and communist, developed and developing have haunted back to relevancy the twenty first century world is now becoming a field of simple binaries. The ideal that global trade needs to follow in today’s fast moving deglobalized world have to be taken from Nehru’s – ‘Tryst with destiny’ speech where while intermingling India with world he said ‘Those dreams are for India, but they are also for the world, for all the nations and people are too closely knit together today for any one of them to imagine that it can live apart. Peace has been said to be indivisible, so is freedom, so is prosperity now, and so also is disaster in this one world that can no longer be split into isolated fragments’. Nations especially developed one must go back to their drawing tables on the aspect of their trade with the world in terms of declining the non- tariff barriers especially by reducing the number of protectionist measures they have imposed after the great recession of 2008 which will help in the upliftment of global trade resulting in betterment of World GDP growth.

 

To: ccpr@ohchr.org  (UN Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner)

cc: cr.nhrc@nic.in  (National Human Rights Commission, India)

 

Dear Sir/Madam

Assuming that the office to whom I am writing to is the one that gives utmost prominence to and nurtures the value of humanity above anything else, regardless of person’s nationality, caste, creed, religion or color which we belong to, would like to draw your attention on recent law of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) that is be enacted in My Country- India, as it been bulldozed through Indian Parliament. The passed act which in its very nature is unconstitutional stands diametrically opposed to the constitutional value of Secularism prescribed in Preamble of Indian Constitution, hence reflecting in evil spirit its selective discrimination less towards a particular religion but more towards a particular socio-economic class.

Rubbing salts to wounds will be the implementation of National Register of Citizen (NRC) which the senior functionaries of the Central govt. are lauding will be implemented before 2024, wherein every citizen of my country has to stand in the queue with documents in his/her hands to prove that he/she is an Indian. My Country whose soul as is said resides in its villages wherein resides 2/3rd of India, will find umpteen number of person especially the downtrodden whose past generations may have been born in this land, had tilled this land and got buried in this land since centuries, will on One Cruel Day found themselves stripped of their Indian citizenship in an instant, subsequently gaining a Tag of- Refugees in English; Sharanaarthi in Hindi; Mohajir in Urdu. As per one of the proposed theories, here lies the Goliath of all details, one basic identification that even a layman in India must possess today is Aadhaar Card, so much so that the Central govt. which had wanted to make Aadhar compulsory for anyone wanting to avail welfare scheme benefits but was later struck down thanks to Supreme Court for the fear of poor’s section of society missing out. Even though, after a vociferous campaign by the Govt. of enrolling everyone under Aadhar orbit, as per the last known figures out of the total India’s population of 1.34 bn(World Bank figure for 2017), Aadhaar Card assigned are 1.25 bn and 9 crore population of India are still left out of ambit of this unique identification, in all probability because the particular individual or his/her family members didn’t have any legitimate document to get enrolled under this Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) scheme. That One Cruel Day when NRC stands imposed in India, refugee’s population of the entire world which currently stands at nearly 7.08 crore will explode more than doubling itself to 16 crores. With India, which from centuries had a tradition offering an olive branch to persecuted refugees all over the world will cease to become a land of highest number of refugees, way ahead of war torn state like Syria which currently stands at the top of the stack with the highest refugee population of 67 lakhs. Adding to this complexity may be an Irony too; Right-wing supporters who are championing NRC may find themselves in limbo as happened in Assam’s NRC, wherein of the staggering 19 lakh people who were left out, nearly 12 lakh people are Bengali Hindu and other Hindu associated community itself. What is the guarantee that Nationwide NRC won’t juggle out similar kinds of results again?

This mammoth population of 9 crore refugees equivalent to the combined population of Myanmar and Malaysia put together, will not be the one belonging to a particular religion or caste or creed but will be the one belonging to a particular socio-economic class- Poor and under deprived class. Poor people’s cutting across religion’s, caste’s and creed’s of Indian Society, leaving these left out David’s for fighting their battle against the Goliath, thus beginning a period of aggravated assault on the livelihood of poor and under-deprived whose very survival will be under siege. When Shri. Pranab Mukherjee was appointed as President in 2012 he mentioned in his acceptance speech that, “For our development to be real, the poorest of the land must feel they are part of the narrative of the rising India”, very unfortunately in a stimulus repercussions of the compound effect of CAA + NRC, these poorest participants of rising India will be one who will be stone heartedly left out.

Yes, within a year or two, of these 9 crore population of refugees, the ones who will be able to prove that they belong to any religion but Islam will become a citizen of India. But, as perceived there are chances that many Muslims, Harijans and Adivasis failing to showcase their identity will be branded as refugees in the end; with no takers in the world. Leading to a very dangerous situation wherein, even thinking about the same gives shivers up and down the spine.

Protests are happening against this law, but, it seems that my govt. has taken an Iron stand against our fundamental right of Right to Dissent; people, mainly students groups of renowned institutes like IIT’s, IIM’s, TISS amongst many others across the country want to protest peacefully but are denied right to protest. Although some anti-social elements are trying to take advantage of the situation by wielding to violence but equally disturbing have been the brutal police actions against the Students of Jamia University & Aligarh University in Delhi & UP respectively.

Agitation against CAA touched a high or per se a low, when Mahatma Gandhi’s biographer Ramchandra Guha was detained under section 144, an old colonial-era law for holding a poster of Gandhi and speaking about constitution to press. Leading to many learned voices suggesting that let alone Gandhi’s Biographer, even if Mahatma Gandhi would have present in current times he too would have faced section 144 with an extra charge of sedition for being an anti-national under section 124A of IPC and would have been taken into custody like he was 97 yrs ago.

PM Modi in one of his speeches made an insidious remark that those creating violence can be identified from their clothes itself. Perhaps he seems to have been prophesying on the color of clothes of those who will gain citizenship via CAA+NRC combo and those who will not. Twist in his statement will be both with saffron and green clothes will somehow found a place in NRC, but it’s the poor who is usually deprived of clothes will found himself deprived of Indian Citizenship also.

An old Adage from early Grecian free divers who hunted lobsters in coral caves of Aegean Island says, “When swimming into a dark tunnel, there arrives a point of no return when you no longer have enough breath to double back. Your only choice is to swim forward into the unknown… and pray for exit”. Indian govt. is praying for such exit but there isn’t so, the wiseness remains in rolling back on CAA, before its exhausts with the breath of doubling back.

Why am I writing this to you? I urge you to strongly rebuke the majority govt. of India on these concerned laws which will majorly impact poor more than a particular religion. My country is burning and I know that time has come for our entire race to take a stand against the issue. As Dante has mentioned in Inferno, ‘the darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis.’

Concluding the letter, I will like to quote what one of the Women MP during the discussion on the bill in Loksabha, Smt. Supriya Sule said as she summed up the debate with a post-war confession made by a German, Martin Niemöller in 1946,

“First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—

Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—

Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—

Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for Me—and there was no one left to speak for Me”

 

Hoping in anticipation that My India – India which Mahatma Gandhi’s dreamt of will prevail in times to come.

 

With Regards,

Mr. Nikhil Bangde

There is always other side to the Coin